Catalyst Commodities's market-leading UK Power model and in-house commodity specialists drive a number of reports depending on the time horizon. We aim to make you the best informed on UK power prices and fundamentals.
Catalyst Commodities are not generalists. Instead, we have great depth and knowledge in UK power and its influences encoded in our model and accessed through direct contact with our specialists, emailed reports, and ModelView. Instead of just saying we are accurate, we prove our price model against the market and believe our commercial experience is key to credible decision support.
We pride ourselves on being transparent in both our assumptions and our modelling.
We deliver our reports via our dynamic web platform ModelView, SFTP, and email.
Useful for Day Ahead (DA), Weekend (WE), and Weekl Ahead (WA) UK power trading and analysis. You will receive email updates at 7:00 a.m. and 8:00 p.m. with an extensive spreadsheet, detailing 93 forecast runs for all the traded parts. There is also a midday "Price Signals" P&L email, where we show our hourly resolution forecast at 7:00 a.m. vs the DA auction outturn and a hypothetical P&L assuming entry at market and exit at DA auction. The next 14 days are re-forecast every half an hour on ModelView.
Delivered every Friday morning by email the Weekly Catalyst includes a two-page forecast commentary, popular one-page Analyst Corners, a detailed spreadsheet at monthly resolution for all inputs and outputs including the traded parts, and once a month a ‘Review and Round-Up’. The next 12 months prices are re-forecast daily on ModelView.
A full report is delivered every quarter, plus, more frequent ‘Impact Briefs’ as and when key events occur. The full report quantifies regulatory and policy risk in detail with AC QC (concise Analyst Corners on policy and regulation) and also contains a ‘Round-Up’ of all the impact briefs produced through the quarter. There is a link to a comprehensive 25-tab spreadsheet, with transparency at monthly resolution for model inputs and outputs.
Web based model visualisation and analysis export.
Dynamic Web-Based Analytical Support for Historic Data and Future Predictions
Access to Historic and Latest Reports and Data vs SO Forecast and Actuals
Fuel Prices and Power Spreads plus Catalyst Gas and Carbon Switching Channels
Border Price Forecasts (FR, NL, BE, IE), Actuals and Flows
Station Availability, Actual Generation, and Remit Tool
UK Domestic GAS Demand vs NG Noms
Metered Wind Forecast and BOA Analysis
TESLA Demand Forecast (Separate Subscription)
We model every metered wind farm available in the UK individually with bespoke wind speed forecasts. The total of these forecasts makes up the Catalyst Metered Wind forecast, giving membership an edge over more typical top-down forecasts. Our wind product is available as part of the packages shown above or separately.
Our proven UK power model is in demand from gas traders and analysts who want an edge on UK CCGT gas dispatches - often a key component of UK gas demand. Coupled with TESLA’s LDZ demand forecast we offer a complete solution for UK domestic gas demand available as part of the packages shown above or separately.
7. Catalyst Commodities can also offer expertise on EU demand forecasting and manages several accounts for TESLA Europe through our joint venture.